Episode 60: Valuation Theory and the Imminent Recession

Welcome back to the Rational Reminder everybody! We are taking this episode to round up all the recent goings-on and tackle a few residual issues that we believe need some attention. We start off by contemplating how much we have both been learning with the wealth of guests that come through our doors. We would never be confronted with this many ideas and inspiration if it were not for this great platform on which we find ourselves! From there we go on to discuss all the recent talk of a recession and the many assumptions that seem to be being made. Here at the Ration Reminder Podcast, we want to try and dissuade you from thinking you can easily predict the movement of the markets or believe those that say they can. It is just not that straightforward. Most often, a recession is only noticeable during or even after it has occurred. Rather stick to a good, diversified strategy without trying to guess and gamble on questionable information. The conversation also covers the portfolio changes from Wealthsimple before Benjamin does what he does best and explains valuation theory for all of us! So for all this and a few more goodies, be sure to listen in!

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Key Points From This Episode:

• Effects of hosting this podcast on our own money minds. [0:00:25.4]
• The impending recession that everyone is talking about. [0:03:24.5]
• Wealthsimple portfolio changes this week and the paper they published. [0:08:29.4]
• Risk, return, low volatility, and balancing these in your favour. [0:17:32.2]
• The theoretical underpinning of factor investing and valuation. [0:18:39.8]
• Fama and French’s Five Factor Model. [0:26:02.5]
• Retiring early; spending rules for the FIRE movement. [0:28:18.2]
• More viable alternatives for saving and preparing for retirement smartly. [0:33:21.6]
• This week’s bad advice! [0:35:28.2]
• And much more!

Tweetables:

“The funny thing is that the stock market and economic recessions have not exactly had strong relationship historically.” — @benjaminfelix [0:05:01]

“There has been so much talk in the media and on Twitter about different people getting into the FIRE movement and becoming bloggers and writers and all kinds of different things.” — @CameronPassmore  [0:28:15]

Links From Today’s Episode:

Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/

Alexandra Macqueen — https://www.pensionacuity.com/

Moira Somers — http://moneymindandmeaning.com/about-moira/

Valuation Theory Summary 

A Wealth of Common Sense — https://awealthofcommonsense.com

David Goetsch — https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0324477/

BMO — https://www.bmogam.com

Robert Novy-Marx — http://rnm.simon.rochester.edu/

Eugene Fama — https://www.chicagobooth.edu/faculty/directory/f/eugene-f-fama

Kenneth French — https://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/

Modigliani-Miller Theorem — https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/modigliani-millertheorem.asp

Fama-French Five Factor Model https://blog.quantinsti.com/fama-french-five-factor-asset-pricing-model/

The Retirement Gamble — https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/retirement-gamble/

Download the transcript of this episode here: Rational Reminder Podcast – EP.60 – Transcript