Episode 238: Prof. Ralph Keeney: Decision Analysis and Value-focused Thinking

Ralph L. Keeney is an expert on decision making and his passion is to help individuals and organizations improve their decision making skills. He received his doctorate from MIT, has been a professor at MIT, the University of Southern California, and Duke University, and created and managed the decision and risk analysis group in an engineering-environmental consulting firm. He is currently a consultant and lecturer on decision making.

Professor Keeney’s books include Decisions with Multiple Objectives with Howard Raiffa (1993), Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking (1992), Smart Choices with John S. Hammond and Howard Raiffa (1999), and Give Yourself a Nudge: Helping Smart People Make Smarter Personal and Business Decisions (2020).
Keeney is a member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering and received an honorary doctorate from the University of Waterloo in Canada.

A large portion of what we talk about on this show boils down to decision-making, and today we have our focus squarely on the fundamentals of this process. Professor Ralph Keeney joins us to discuss some of the simplest and most profound elements of decisions, and why we so often miss these aspects. Ralph is a true expert on decision analysis, and his systematic process for decision-making, as laid out in his new book, Give Yourself a Nudge, has truly life-altering potential for anyone looking to improve their future. The book and this conversation are jam-packed with insightful and understandable ideas and examples, including clarifying objectives, the vital role of our values, generating alternatives, and a comparison between decision problems and decision opportunities. Ralph lays out a great way to get started on the path to better decisions, so make sure to join us to hear it all.  

Key Points From This Episode:

• The focus of Ralph’s research and how he articulates the importance of our conscious decisions. (0:03:48)
• The shortcomings of the trial and error approach that many of us naturally employ. (0:10:46)
• First steps towards being a better decision-maker; using personal decisions for practice. (0:13:08)
• Ralph explains his conception and use of the idea of ‘nudges’. (0:14:30)
• A better awareness of the often-neglected front end of decision-making. (0:17:38)
• An explanation of Ralph’s value-focused decision-making process. (0:22:25)
• Mistakes made around retirement decisions. (0:30:30)
• Why clarifying your personal decision values can be so difficult. (0:32:15)
• The process of translating values into objectives. (0:36:11)
• Ralph’s important question around the different possible situations in the future. (0:41:49)
• Simple processes and common pitfalls for generating alternatives. (0:43:19)
• Exploring decisions that require third-party permission or commitment. (0:47:59)
• Differentiating between decision problems and decision opportunities. (0:52:27)
• The most important concepts for embodying value-focussed decision-making. (0:57:44)
• The role of financial advisors in aiding their clients to make good decisions. (1:03:28)
• Application of these ideas toward living a good life. (1:07:46)
• Ralph’s simple definition of success in his own life. (1:10:53)

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Books From Today’s Episode:

Give Yourself a Nudge — https://amzn.to/3WKMwZx

Smart Choices — https://amzn.to/3Ho0vP6

Value-Focused Thinking — https://amzn.to/3HgC7yH

Decisions with Multiple Objectives — https://amzn.to/3DywYRH

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Rational Reminder Website — https://rationalreminder.ca/ 

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Prof. Ralph Keeney — https://ralphkeeney.com/

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