If you’re ready for a serious education on market elasticity, demand system pricing, and stock market flows, you’ve come to the right place (disclaimer: don’t expect light entertainment). Today’s guest is Ralph Koijen, AQR Capital Management Professor of Finance and Fama Faculty Fellow at the University of Chicago, Booth School of Business. Tune in for a fascinating conversation about some of the most fundamental characteristics of our economy. To say we learned a lot from this conversation is an understatement, and we’re sure you’ll walk away with just as many lightbulb moments and impactful lessons as we did.

https://youtu.be/_aEC2nhrPFc

Key Points From This Episode:

Ralph provides an in-depth explanation of demand system pricing. [0:02:48]
An example of how valuations can be affected while the connection between fundamentals and valuations remain relatively unaffected. [0:08:18]
How Ralph’s model for demand system asset pricing differs from other models. [0:41:26]
The two components that investor demand is made up of. [0:14:54]
Exploring the concept of latent demand and how to estimate it. [0:17:57]
How the price impact from institutions and elasticity of markets has changed over time. [0:20:34]
Understanding the surprising impact of households on stock market volatility in 2008. [0:20:34]
How latent demand can be used to predict differences in expected returns. [0:25:46]
Examples of factors that drive latent demand. [0:30:42]
The most impactful group of investors (and why this is the case). [0:33:17]
An overview of what would likely happen if the most influential investors switched to market cap indexing. [0:35:22]
How huge firms influence the setting of prices. [0:36:25]
Ralph shares his thoughts on the idea that index funds are distorting market prices as they continue to grow in magnitude. [0:35:22]
What demand system pricing tells us about the effect of socially responsible investing on prices. [0:43:01]
How US asset prices would be affected if foreign demand for US assets decreases. [0:35:22]
Inelastic versus elastic markets. [0:47:23]
Why prices are so much more volatile than fundamentals. [0:51:11]
Comparing micro-elasticity and macro-elasticity. [0:52:18]
Ways to estimate micro-elasticity and macro-elasticity, and the limitations of these approaches. [0:54:00]
Ralph’s estimate of what the macro-elasticity is. [01:01:00]
Risk factors that impact elasticity. [01:02:07]
An example which shows how flows work. [01:03:32]
Factors that impact how long the price impact of flows lasts. [01:05:24]
Dividend irrelevance in inelastic markets. [01:10:30]
The role of the increasing market share of cap weighted indices on market elasticity. [01:12:28]
How investors should behave when markets are inelastic. [01:15:11]
Ralph’s definition of success. [01:18:47]

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About The Author

Cameron Passmore

Cameron Passmore has been a leading advocate for evidence-based, systemic investing for over 20 years in the Ottawa area. Today, Cameron and his team serve a broad range of affluent clients across Canada.